Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-03-23 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 64.2%

VGK: 35.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.70

VGK: 2.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 54%

CGY

J. Markstrom

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	32	29	3	90.6%	3.19	1	0.19
VGK	L. Thompson	44	42	2	95.5%	3.17	1	1.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • CGY at home vs VGK: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	CGY
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	16	1	1.16
1	VGK	14	0	0.95
2	CGY	15	0	0.61
2	VGK	14	0	0.84
3	CGY	23	0	1.40
3	VGK	17	1	1.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.7 - 2.3