Arizona Coyotes at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-03-24 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 1 Arizona Coyotes

Win Probability

COL: 63.4%

ARI: 36.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.61

ARI: 2.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 54%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	18	17	1	94.4%	1.15	1	0.15
ARI	K. Vejmelka	30	27	3	90.0%	3.80	1	0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs ARI: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-18	COL 4 - 3 ARI	COL	COL
2023-12-27	ARI 5 - 4 COL	ARI	COL
2023-12-23	COL 4 - 1 ARI	COL	COL
2023-11-30	ARI 4 - 3 COL	ARI	COL
2023-03-26	ARI 3 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	14	0	1.08
1	ARI	11	1	0.57
2	COL	17	0	1.28
2	ARI	8	0	0.28
3	COL	16	1	1.44
3	ARI	9	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 1 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.6 - 2.3