Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-03-25 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 0 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

PHI: 53.5%

DET: 46.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.94

DET: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 44%

PHI

C. Hart

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	29	29	0	100.0%	2.90	3	2.90
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	22	19	3	86.4%	3.02	3	0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs DET: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	DET 6 - 3 PHI	DET	PHI
2026-04-02	PHI 2 - 4 DET	DET	PHI
2026-03-28	DET 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-01-21	PHI 2 - 1 DET	PHI	PHI
2024-12-18	DET 6 - 4 PHI	DET	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	1	1.11
1	DET	10	1	0.43
2	PHI	11	0	0.68
2	DET	13	0	0.92
3	PHI	10	2	1.23
3	DET	15	2	1.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 0 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0