Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-03-25 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 0 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 58.6%

BUF: 41.4%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.42

BUF: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

BUF

E. Comrie

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	35	33	2	94.3%	3.25	2	1.25
BUF	E. Comrie	26	26	0	100.0%	1.95	0	1.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs BUF: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BUF 4 - 3 NYI	BUF	BUF
2026-01-24	NYI 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-12-20	BUF 3 - 2 NYI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-23	NYI 1 - 7 BUF	BUF	NYI
2024-11-30	NYI 3 - 0 BUF	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	10	0	0.49
1	BUF	16	0	0.86
2	NYI	15	0	1.04
2	BUF	10	0	0.41
3	NYI	9	0	0.42
3	BUF	19	2	1.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 0 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0