Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2023-03-25 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

CAR: 65.2%

TOR: 34.8%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.83

TOR: 2.46

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	44	41	3	93.2%	5.41	3	2.41
TOR	Matt Murray	28	23	5	82.1%	2.70	1	-2.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CAR at home vs TOR: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	22	0	1.38
1	TOR	21	2	1.93
2	CAR	6	0	0.46
2	TOR	23	0	1.67
3	CAR	8	1	0.85
3	TOR	18	1	1.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.8 - 2.5