Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-03-25 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 69.3%

VGK: 30.7%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.78

VGK: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 53%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

VGK

L. Brossoit

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	34	30	4	88.2%	3.26	1	-0.74
VGK	L. Brossoit	30	27	3	90.0%	2.97	0	-0.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • EDM at home vs VGK: 8-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	18	0	1.37
1	VGK	13	0	0.74
2	EDM	15	0	0.87
2	VGK	12	0	0.81
3	EDM	8	0	0.67
3	VGK	19	1	1.51
4	EDM	1	0	0.07
4	VGK	2	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.8 - 2.8