Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-03-27 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 41.6%

FLA: 58.4%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.79

FLA: 3.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Mads Sogaard	34	32	2	94.1%	2.86	1	0.86
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	27	22	5	81.5%	2.51	3	-2.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • OTT at home vs FLA: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	OTT 5 - 1 FLA	OTT	OTT
2026-03-31	FLA 6 - 3 OTT	FLA	OTT
2026-01-10	OTT 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	OTT
2025-10-11	FLA 6 - 2 OTT	FLA	FLA
2025-04-05	OTT 3 - 0 FLA	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	2	1.03
1	FLA	11	0	0.58
2	OTT	10	0	0.66
2	FLA	20	0	1.16
3	OTT	12	1	0.82
3	FLA	21	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.7