New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-03-27 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 1 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 44.8%

NJD: 55.2%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.01

NJD: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 54%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

NJD

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	31	30	1	96.8%	3.39	1	2.39
NJD	V. Vanecek	36	31	5	86.1%	4.74	5	-0.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • NYI at home vs NJD: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	NJD 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NJD
2026-01-06	NYI 9 - 0 NJD	NYI	NYI
2025-12-23	NYI 2 - 1 NJD	NYI	NYI
2025-11-10	NJD 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NJD
2025-04-13	NJD 0 - 1 NYI	NYI	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	15	1	1.20
1	NJD	16	1	1.28
2	NYI	23	0	1.08
2	NJD	10	0	0.62
3	NYI	12	4	2.47
3	NJD	21	0	1.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 1 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3