Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-03-28 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

PHI: 72.8%

MTL: 27.2%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.53

MTL: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

PHI

F. Sandstrom

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	F. Sandstrom	29	27	2	93.1%	2.44	2	0.44
MTL	Cayden Primeau	27	24	3	88.9%	3.88	2	0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • PHI at home vs MTL: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	10	0	0.71
1	MTL	15	0	0.52
2	PHI	16	0	1.13
2	MTL	11	2	1.28
3	PHI	13	2	2.04
3	MTL	10	0	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9