Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2023-03-28 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 7 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 40.9%

PIT: 59.1%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.95

PIT: 3.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 49%

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	39	35	4	89.7%	3.56	1	-0.44
PIT	C. DeSmith	25	18	7	72.0%	4.00	4	-3.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs PIT: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	1	1.35
1	PIT	14	0	1.03
2	DET	8	0	0.35
2	PIT	19	1	1.37
3	DET	18	3	2.30
3	PIT	23	0	1.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 7 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5