Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-03-29 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Florida Panthers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 54.2%

FLA: 45.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.37

FLA: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 52%

TOR

I. Samsonov

FLA

A. Lyon

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	29	26	3	89.7%	3.26	0	0.26
FLA	A. Lyon	40	38	2	95.0%	4.27	3	2.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • TOR at home vs FLA: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	19	0	1.22
1	FLA	9	0	0.65
2	TOR	20	1	1.23
2	FLA	16	0	1.07
3	TOR	15	2	1.64
3	FLA	17	0	1.43
4	TOR	1	0	0.18
4	FLA	1	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3