New York Islanders at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-03-29 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 2 New York Islanders (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 51.6%

NYI: 48.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.19

NYI: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 54%

WSH

D. Kuemper

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	31	28	3	90.3%	3.93	3	0.93
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	29	27	2	93.1%	2.90	1	0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • WSH at home vs NYI: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	0	0.39
1	NYI	5	0	0.22
2	WSH	16	0	0.73
2	NYI	10	0	0.32
3	WSH	5	0	0.44
3	NYI	20	1	1.27
4	WSH	5	0	0.44
4	NYI	3	0	0.26
5	WSH	3	1	0.89
5	NYI	2	2	1.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1