Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-03-30 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers (OT)

Win Probability

OTT: 54.2%

PHI: 45.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.47

PHI: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

OTT

C. Talbot

PHI

F. Sandstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	C. Talbot	11	7	4	63.6%	1.47	1	-2.53
PHI	F. Sandstrom	46	41	5	89.1%	5.08	1	0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • OTT at home vs PHI: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-04-13	OTT 4 - 3 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-03-11	PHI 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	25	0	1.71
1	PHI	5	1	0.53
2	OTT	21	1	1.92
2	PHI	7	0	0.27
3	OTT	21	0	1.21
3	PHI	8	0	0.63
4	OTT	2	0	0.24
4	PHI	1	0	0.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9