Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2023-03-30 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

Win Probability

SJS: 58.0%

VGK: 42.0%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.91

VGK: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 49%

SJS

J. Reimer

VGK

L. Brossoit

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	J. Reimer	26	23	3	88.5%	3.34	3	0.34
VGK	L. Brossoit	25	21	4	84.0%	2.10	0	-1.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • SJS at home vs VGK: 1-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	11	0	0.75
1	VGK	10	0	0.64
2	SJS	12	0	0.52
2	VGK	8	0	0.56
3	SJS	19	0	0.67
3	VGK	21	3	2.13
4	SJS	1	0	0.16
4	VGK	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0