Dallas Stars at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2023-03-31 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 2 - 5 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 57.1%

DAL: 42.9%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.96

DAL: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 48%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	31	26	5	83.9%	4.59	3	-0.41
DAL	Jake Oettinger	18	16	2	88.9%	1.92	0	-0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • ARI at home vs DAL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-03-24	ARI 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-20	DAL 5 - 2 ARI	DAL	DAL
2023-11-14	DAL 4 - 3 ARI	DAL	DAL
2023-03-31	ARI 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	ARI
2023-03-01	DAL 4 - 2 ARI	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	12	0	0.59
1	DAL	13	0	0.81
2	ARI	7	0	0.53
2	DAL	20	0	1.03
3	ARI	10	0	0.80
3	DAL	16	3	2.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 2 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8