New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-04-01 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 0 New York Islanders

Win Probability

TBL: 51.2%

NYI: 48.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.88

NYI: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 56%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	38	38	0	100.0%	3.07	1	3.07
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	32	27	5	84.4%	3.55	2	-1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs NYI: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	21	1	1.63
1	NYI	17	0	0.96
2	TBL	15	1	1.27
2	NYI	22	1	1.83
3	TBL	7	0	0.66
3	NYI	9	0	0.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 0 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2