Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-04-01 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 0 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

OTT: 47.2%

TOR: 52.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.21

TOR: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 45%

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Mads Sogaard	20	17	3	85.0%	2.57	2	-0.43
TOR	I. Samsonov	31	31	0	100.0%	2.72	0	2.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • OTT at home vs TOR: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	0	0.78
1	TOR	6	0	0.18
2	OTT	12	0	0.64
2	TOR	16	1	1.30
3	OTT	24	0	1.30
3	TOR	5	1	1.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 0 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3