New York Rangers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-04-02 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 57.0%

NYR: 43.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.53

NYR: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

WSH

D. Kuemper

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	34	29	5	85.3%	4.44	5	-0.56
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	28	26	2	92.9%	3.78	5	1.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • WSH at home vs NYR: 7-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	NYR 8 - 1 WSH	NYR	NYR
2025-12-31	WSH 6 - 3 NYR	WSH	WSH
2025-12-23	WSH 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	WSH
2025-10-12	NYR 0 - 1 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-05	NYR 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	0	0.64
1	NYR	14	3	1.69
2	WSH	16	2	1.19
2	NYR	12	0	0.88
3	WSH	20	3	1.95
3	NYR	24	2	1.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2