Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2023-04-03 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 53.6%

VGK: 46.4%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.37

VGK: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

VGK

L. Brossoit

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	31	25	6	80.6%	4.87	4	-1.13
VGK	L. Brossoit	37	32	5	86.5%	4.30	2	-0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • MIN at home vs VGK: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-29	VGK 3 - 2 MIN	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	14	0	0.96
1	VGK	13	0	0.86
2	MIN	15	0	1.09
2	VGK	14	0	0.49
3	MIN	14	0	0.40
3	VGK	12	1	0.67
4	MIN	2	0	0.13
4	VGK	2	0	0.11
5	MIN	5	2	1.71
5	VGK	5	3	2.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9