Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2023-04-04 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

FLA: 63.7%

BUF: 36.3%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.85

BUF: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 7.1

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 56%

FLA

A. Lyon

BUF

D. Levi

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	A. Lyon	40	39	1	97.5%	3.45	2	2.45
BUF	D. Levi	36	34	2	94.4%	4.02	3	2.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • FLA at home vs BUF: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-27	FLA 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	FLA
2026-02-02	FLA 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-12	BUF 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-18	BUF 3 - 0 FLA	BUF	FLA
2025-04-12	FLA 3 - 2 BUF	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	18	1	1.57
1	BUF	16	1	1.07
2	FLA	20	1	1.29
2	BUF	10	0	0.58
3	FLA	13	1	1.15
3	BUF	24	1	1.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.9 - 2.9