Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-04-04 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 53.9%

DET: 46.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.48

DET: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 45%

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Cayden Primeau	21	16	5	76.2%	2.71	2	-2.29
DET	Ville Husso	24	24	0	100.0%	1.61	2	1.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • MTL at home vs DET: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	MTL
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	MTL
2025-01-23	DET 4 - 2 MTL	DET	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	1	0.74
1	DET	10	1	0.97
2	MTL	9	1	0.62
2	DET	13	1	0.97
3	MTL	9	0	0.25
3	DET	7	0	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8