Pittsburgh Penguins at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2023-04-04 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 5 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 49.9%

PIT: 50.1%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.28

PIT: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 56%

NJD

V. Vanecek

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	V. Vanecek	23	22	1	95.7%	2.11	2	1.11
PIT	Tristan Jarry	37	32	5	86.5%	4.19	2	-0.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • NJD at home vs PIT: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NJD 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	NJD
2026-02-26	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2026-01-08	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2025-11-08	NJD 2 - 1 PIT	NJD	NJD
2025-04-11	NJD 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	13	0	0.76
1	PIT	13	2	0.76
2	NJD	21	1	1.63
2	PIT	8	0	0.56
3	NJD	16	1	1.81
3	PIT	12	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 5 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0