Philadelphia Flyers at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2023-04-04 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 4 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

STL: 51.4%

PHI: 48.6%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.27

PHI: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	34	32	2	94.1%	2.58	1	0.58
PHI	Samuel Ersson	32	28	4	87.5%	3.95	4	-0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs PHI: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-20	PHI 3 - 2 STL	PHI	PHI
2025-11-14	STL 5 - 6 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-11-30	STL 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-10-31	PHI 2 - 1 STL	PHI	PHI
2024-03-04	PHI 1 - 2 STL	STL	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	18	1	1.35
1	PHI	11	0	0.39
2	STL	16	1	1.28
2	PHI	16	0	0.73
3	STL	14	2	1.32
3	PHI	21	1	1.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 4 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0