Minnesota Wild at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-04-06 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 1 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

PIT: 62.3%

MIN: 37.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.10

MIN: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 55%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	28	27	1	96.4%	2.04	1	1.04
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	31	27	4	87.1%	2.47	1	-1.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs MIN: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-21	PIT 0 - 5 MIN	MIN	PIT
2025-10-30	MIN 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	MIN
2025-03-09	MIN 1 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-10-29	PIT 3 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-02-09	MIN 3 - 2 PIT	MIN	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	20	0	1.21
1	MIN	9	0	0.44
2	PIT	6	0	0.46
2	MIN	17	0	0.67
3	PIT	9	1	0.80
3	MIN	18	1	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 1 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0