Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-04-06 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 2 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 44.1%

WSH: 55.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.87

WSH: 3.46

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	26	24	2	92.3%	2.61	2	0.61
WSH	D. Kuemper	32	26	6	81.2%	4.59	5	-1.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • MTL at home vs WSH: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	20	0	1.24
1	WSH	7	1	0.72
2	MTL	15	2	1.52
2	WSH	12	1	0.96
3	MTL	10	3	1.83
3	WSH	16	0	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 3.5