Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-04-06 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 6 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

NYI: 57.0%

TBL: 43.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.01

TBL: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 51%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	31	30	1	96.8%	2.21	1	1.21
TBL	B. Elliott	42	36	6	85.7%	3.10	0	-2.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs TBL: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	17	0	0.81
1	TBL	5	0	0.21
2	NYI	18	0	0.85
2	TBL	15	0	0.96
3	NYI	21	0	1.44
3	TBL	20	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 6 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0