Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-04-06 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 49.5%

LAK: 50.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.87

LAK: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 52%

VGK

L. Brossoit

LAK

J. Korpisalo

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Brossoit	32	30	2	93.8%	2.06	0	0.06
LAK	J. Korpisalo	37	32	5	86.5%	4.04	2	-0.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • VGK at home vs LAK: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	LAK 4 - 6 VGK	VGK	LAK
2026-02-05	VGK 4 - 1 LAK	VGK	VGK
2026-01-14	LAK 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	LAK
2025-10-08	VGK 5 - 6 LAK	LAK	VGK
2025-03-09	VGK 5 - 6 LAK	LAK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	17	2	2.03
1	LAK	18	0	0.78
2	VGK	18	0	1.22
2	LAK	13	0	0.84
3	VGK	14	0	0.79
3	LAK	14	0	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2