Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2023-04-06 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 51.1%

COL: 48.9%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.04

COL: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

SJS

K. Kahkonen

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	K. Kahkonen	31	25	6	80.6%	3.44	2	-2.56
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	23	21	2	91.3%	2.84	1	0.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • SJS at home vs COL: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	COL 4 - 2 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-26	COL 6 - 0 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-01	SJS 3 - 2 COL	SJS	COL
2025-03-06	COL 7 - 3 SJS	COL	COL
2024-12-19	SJS 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	15	0	1.02
1	COL	8	0	0.68
2	SJS	11	1	1.01
2	COL	16	2	2.12
3	SJS	15	0	0.81
3	COL	10	0	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4