Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-04-08 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

WSH: 43.0%

FLA: 57.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.40

FLA: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

FLA

A. Lyon

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	37	33	4	89.2%	5.09	3	1.09
FLA	A. Lyon	24	22	2	91.7%	2.05	1	0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 76% • WSH at home vs FLA: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	9	0	0.42
1	FLA	15	0	0.83
2	WSH	20	1	1.58
2	FLA	14	1	1.19
3	WSH	5	0	0.06
3	FLA	24	2	3.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.4 - 3.3