Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2023-04-08 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

DET: 45.8%

PIT: 54.2%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.20

PIT: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Ville Husso	28	23	5	82.1%	2.16	2	-2.84
PIT	Tristan Jarry	20	19	1	95.0%	1.64	0	0.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs PIT: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	12	0	0.86
1	PIT	9	1	0.89
2	DET	12	0	0.50
2	PIT	12	1	0.56
3	DET	7	0	0.29
3	PIT	12	0	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.5