Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-04-08 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights (SO)

Win Probability

DAL: 53.8%

VGK: 46.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.34

VGK: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

VGK

J. Quick

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	23	22	1	95.7%	2.01	0	1.01
VGK	J. Quick	28	26	2	92.9%	2.90	1	0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • DAL at home vs VGK: 7-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	12	0	0.61
1	VGK	12	0	0.89
2	DAL	13	0	0.99
2	VGK	9	0	0.44
3	DAL	9	0	0.27
3	VGK	8	0	0.38
4	DAL	3	0	0.19
4	VGK	3	0	0.13
5	DAL	3	1	0.83
5	VGK	3	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0