Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2023-04-09 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche (OT)

Win Probability

ANA: 34.4%

COL: 65.6%

Expected Goals

ANA: 1.94

COL: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

COL

P. Francouz

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	46	41	5	89.1%	5.38	1	0.38
COL	P. Francouz	23	19	4	82.6%	1.51	0	-2.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • ANA at home vs COL: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	ANA 1 - 5 COL	COL	ANA
2026-01-21	COL 1 - 2 ANA	ANA	COL
2025-11-11	COL 4 - 1 ANA	COL	COL
2025-04-13	ANA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2024-12-20	ANA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	10	0	0.60
1	COL	15	0	1.41
2	ANA	11	0	0.67
2	COL	20	1	1.45
3	ANA	8	0	0.24
3	COL	24	0	1.76
4	ANA	0	0	0.00
4	COL	6	0	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 1.9 - 3.4