Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2023-04-11 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 6 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

NJD: 74.5%

BUF: 25.5%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.71

BUF: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 74%

Over 6.5: 60%

NJD

V. Vanecek

BUF

D. Levi

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	V. Vanecek	38	36	2	94.7%	3.15	4	1.15
BUF	D. Levi	30	24	6	80.0%	4.68	4	-1.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NJD at home vs BUF: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	NJD 1 - 2 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-12-21	NJD 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-11-28	BUF 0 - 5 NJD	NJD	BUF
2025-02-02	BUF 4 - 3 NJD	BUF	NJD
2024-10-05	NJD 3 - 1 BUF	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	11	0	0.63
1	BUF	15	1	0.91
2	NJD	10	1	0.89
2	BUF	21	2	1.13
3	NJD	20	3	3.16
3	BUF	18	1	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 6 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8