Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-04-11 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 52.8%

TOR: 47.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.07

TOR: 3.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 54%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	24	20	4	83.3%	2.63	0	-1.37
TOR	Joseph Woll	48	45	3	93.8%	3.72	0	0.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs TOR: 6-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TBL	17	1.17
1	TOR	16	1.13
2	TBL	22	1.08
2	TOR	11	1.08
3	TBL	24	1.47
3	TOR	8	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.5