Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-04-13 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 0 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

TBL: 54.6%

DET: 45.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.48

DET: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

TBL

B. Elliott

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	32	32	0	100.0%	2.35	1	2.35
DET	Ville Husso	32	27	5	84.4%	5.11	3	0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • TBL at home vs DET: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	7	0	0.42
1	DET	16	1	1.07
2	TBL	18	1	1.42
2	DET	17	0	0.94
3	TBL	19	2	3.27
3	DET	7	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 0 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1