Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-04-13 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

NYR: 48.4%

TOR: 51.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.26

TOR: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYR

J. Halak

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	J. Halak	21	18	3	85.7%	2.67	1	-0.33
TOR	Joseph Woll	24	22	2	91.7%	3.10	2	1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NYR at home vs TOR: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	11	1	0.60
1	TOR	14	0	0.82
2	NYR	10	1	0.99
2	TOR	10	0	0.72
3	NYR	18	0	1.51
3	TOR	11	1	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1