Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2023-04-17 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 43.5%

FLA: 56.5%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.98

FLA: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 56%

BOS

L. Ullmark

FLA

A. Lyon

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	32	31	1	96.9%	2.58	2	1.58
FLA	A. Lyon	29	26	3	89.7%	2.66	0	-0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BOS at home vs FLA: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	FLA 2 - 1 BOS	FLA	FLA
2026-02-04	FLA 5 - 4 BOS	FLA	FLA
2025-10-21	BOS 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-03-11	BOS 3 - 2 FLA	BOS	BOS
2025-01-11	FLA 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	14	0	0.91
1	FLA	20	1	1.06
2	BOS	11	0	0.55
2	FLA	13	0	0.67
3	BOS	17	0	1.20
3	FLA	15	1	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3