Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2023-04-21 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 57.9%

BOS: 42.1%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.07

BOS: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 56%

FLA

A. Lyon

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	A. Lyon	35	31	4	88.6%	4.58	4	0.58
BOS	L. Ullmark	31	29	2	93.5%	2.60	0	0.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • FLA at home vs BOS: 8-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	FLA 2 - 1 BOS	FLA	FLA
2026-02-04	FLA 5 - 4 BOS	FLA	FLA
2025-10-21	BOS 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-03-11	BOS 3 - 2 FLA	BOS	BOS
2025-01-11	FLA 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	12	0	0.58
1	BOS	11	1	0.58
2	FLA	8	0	0.56
2	BOS	20	1	1.52
3	FLA	24	0	1.46
3	BOS	20	2	2.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0