Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2023-04-30 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Florida Panthers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 51.7%

FLA: 48.3%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.20

FLA: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	31	27	4	87.1%	2.26	0	-1.74
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	36	33	3	91.7%	2.91	1	-0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BOS at home vs FLA: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	FLA 2 - 1 BOS	FLA	FLA
2026-02-04	FLA 5 - 4 BOS	FLA	FLA
2025-10-21	BOS 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-03-11	BOS 3 - 2 FLA	BOS	BOS
2025-01-11	FLA 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	15	1	0.91
1	FLA	14	0	0.76
2	BOS	21	0	1.10
2	FLA	7	0	0.65
3	BOS	13	0	0.71
3	FLA	14	0	0.41
4	BOS	5	0	0.20
4	FLA	6	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1