Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-04-18 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 51.9%

TBL: 48.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.94

TBL: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 54%

TOR

I. Samsonov

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	34	27	7	79.4%	3.12	3	-3.88
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	31	28	3	90.3%	3.15	2	0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 9-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	0	0.51
1	TBL	18	1	0.99
2	TOR	13	1	1.10
2	TBL	20	2	1.70
3	TOR	18	1	1.55
3	TBL	6	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1