Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-04-20 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

TOR: 52.6%

TBL: 47.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.84

TBL: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 54%

TOR

I. Samsonov

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	22	20	2	90.9%	1.87	0	-0.13
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	37	30	7	81.1%	3.97	1	-3.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 9-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.84
1	TBL	12	0	0.74
2	TOR	20	0	1.59
2	TBL	12	0	0.73
3	TOR	15	1	1.54
3	TBL	9	0	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2