Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-04-22 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 47.6%

TOR: 52.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.10

TOR: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	27	23	4	85.2%	2.83	1	-1.17
TOR	I. Samsonov	39	36	3	92.3%	4.39	3	1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs TOR: 6-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	1	1.33
1	TOR	8	0	0.54
2	TBL	26	1	1.58
2	TOR	11	0	0.81
3	TBL	7	1	0.58
3	TOR	10	1	1.15
4	TBL	16	0	0.91
4	TOR	7	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4