Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-04-24 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 45.4%

TOR: 54.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.08

TOR: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 54%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	37	32	5	86.5%	2.89	1	-2.11
TOR	I. Samsonov	31	27	4	87.1%	3.02	0	-0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs TOR: 6-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	0	1.04
1	TOR	6	0	0.47
2	TBL	11	0	0.71
2	TOR	17	0	0.88
3	TBL	19	0	1.12
3	TOR	13	0	0.68
4	TBL	1	0	0.14
4	TOR	8	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1