Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-04-27 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 57.7%

TBL: 42.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.55

TBL: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

TOR

I. Samsonov

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	38	34	4	89.5%	3.67	2	-0.33
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	30	28	2	93.3%	3.60	2	1.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 9-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	0	1.16
1	TBL	17	0	0.65
2	TOR	11	1	0.71
2	TBL	18	0	0.75
3	TOR	20	1	1.73
3	TBL	14	2	2.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0