Colorado Avalanche at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2023-04-28 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

SEA: 52.8%

COL: 47.2%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.20

COL: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	39	35	4	89.7%	4.40	3	0.40
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	23	22	1	95.7%	2.17	1	1.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • SEA at home vs COL: 2-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	COL 2 - 0 SEA	COL	COL
2026-03-12	SEA 1 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-12-16	SEA 3 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2024-12-22	COL 5 - 2 SEA	COL	COL
2024-11-05	COL 6 - 3 SEA	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	16	0	0.88
1	COL	16	1	0.96
2	SEA	7	0	0.38
2	COL	21	1	1.83
3	SEA	12	1	0.92
3	COL	17	1	1.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0