Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-04-25 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 0 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

DAL: 56.5%

MIN: 43.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.24

MIN: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	27	27	0	100.0%	2.44	1	2.44
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	25	21	4	84.0%	3.01	3	-0.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • DAL at home vs MIN: 9-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	1	0.93
1	MIN	11	1	0.76
2	DAL	12	1	0.68
2	MIN	16	0	1.23
3	DAL	10	1	1.40
3	MIN	17	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 0 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9