Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2023-04-28 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

MIN: 46.1%

DAL: 53.9%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.86

DAL: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	33	29	4	87.9%	3.97	3	-0.03
DAL	Jake Oettinger	24	23	1	95.8%	2.73	1	1.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • MIN at home vs DAL: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	14	0	0.85
1	DAL	11	1	1.04
2	MIN	13	0	0.77
2	DAL	23	1	1.51
3	MIN	19	1	1.12
3	DAL	10	1	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3