Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2023-04-22 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 61.6%

VGK: 38.4%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.47

VGK: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

VGK

L. Brossoit

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	48	43	5	89.6%	3.93	0	-1.07
VGK	L. Brossoit	34	30	4	88.2%	2.61	0	-1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs VGK: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	VGK 6 - 2 WPG	VGK	VGK
2026-03-24	WPG 4 - 1 VGK	WPG	VGK
2026-01-06	WPG 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-03	VGK 0 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-12	WPG 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	WPG	8	0.40
1	VGK	13	0.67
2	WPG	11	0.77
2	VGK	19	1.30
3	WPG	20	1.08
3	VGK	12	0.56
4	WPG	11	0.31
4	VGK	12	0.71
5	WPG	2	0.06
5	VGK	8	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0