Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-04-27 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 41.7%

WPG: 58.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.80

WPG: 3.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

VGK

L. Brossoit

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Brossoit	30	29	1	96.7%	2.13	2	1.13
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	25	21	4	84.0%	2.90	2	-1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs WPG: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	VGK 6 - 2 WPG	VGK	VGK
2026-03-24	WPG 4 - 1 VGK	WPG	VGK
2026-01-06	WPG 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-03	VGK 0 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-12	WPG 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	1	0.90
1	WPG	7	0	0.16
2	VGK	17	0	1.34
2	WPG	10	1	0.61
3	VGK	3	1	0.66
3	WPG	26	1	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.8 - 3.9