Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-05-04 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TOR: 46.0%

FLA: 54.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.88

FLA: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 55%

TOR

I. Samsonov

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	29	26	3	89.7%	3.07	1	0.07
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	37	35	2	94.6%	4.25	4	2.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • TOR at home vs FLA: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	21	2	1.96
1	FLA	10	0	0.71
2	TOR	16	0	0.89
2	FLA	18	0	1.04
3	TOR	19	2	1.39
3	FLA	13	1	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1